During the war, the theme of finance and investment had gone into the backgroud. As a rule, people invest spare money. And now the solvency of Ukrainians has fallen, unemployment is rising, and prices in stores leave much to be desired. Many have taken out their financial cushions, on which they have been saving money for years.
But there are those who are looking to invest money or at least just save it. Many pre-war investment options have become obsolete. Let’s understand the investment climate in the world market and consider the safest and most profitable ideas for investment in 2023.
Deposits, bonds and currency
Now Ukrainians prefer to make deposits on demand, or on “short” deposits, which can be withdrawn at any time. The advantages of placing savings on bank deposits is the state guarantee and relative security. Disadvantages – deposit rates, which for a long time could not compensate for inflation, because of which since 2020 the number of bank deposits in currency decreased.
Now there is a trend in the growth of deposits. During the war, a law was passed that the amount of 100% would be guaranteed by the state – that’s a plus, and we would advise people against taking risks by investing in more conservative instruments.
Rates on foreign currency deposits, however, did not increase: according to Minfin.com.ua, on average, 2.5-3.5% per annum. But the people received the opportunity to buy currency in the amount of 50 thousand UAH/month in one bank at the rate close to the interbank, and it is about 37 UAH/$. This is below the “street” rate, but provided that the purchased currency goes on a three-month deposit. This tool works actively, and part of the population thus transfers the available hryvnia into the dollar.
Deposits in UAH are significantly higher – in case of placing a deposit for a period of one year you can get up to 15-16% per annum. But these estimates can hardly be considered absolute because of inflation. So this method of investment can be called not an “investment”, but rather, saving funds from inflationary
Agricultural land is a relatively new investment for Ukrainians. In the near future, land prices will fall, but in a measured way: by law, land cannot be sold below the Standard Monetary Valuation (NIR).
Now the land is being sold by people who didn’t plan to do it before. Because of the war and the deteriorating economic situation, it will soon be impossible to pay rent. The situation could change based on the course of the hostilities and if the maritime export of agricultural products could be improved. Unlocked exports would provide the agribusiness with income and enable it to pay the rent. Then the number of people willing to sell the land will decrease.
Besides, even if the land comes under fire, it’s not going anywhere and it’s still an asset. Now we have the lowest possible price. It is likely that over the next two to three years after the end of the war, land will grow in value along with the renewal of Ukraine’s economy.
Real estate is a bold market these days. Prices have indeed fallen, but the risks are still too high. Rental rates were also significantly reduced.
In the west of the country, real estate may have an investment appeal, but we recommend focusing on logistics and office infrastructure rather than on housing.
Now it is impossible to guess when there will be a bottom point in the real estate market, because the war is continuing and the enemy is seizing territory.
Kyiv seems to be safe, but we understand – Kyiv sometimes comes under fire too. Secondly, we do not understand what will be the demand for real estate, because the longer the war lasts, the fewer people will return to Ukraine, and another question: whether and where will increase the price of real estate after the war.
In addition, millions of Ukrainians can stay abroad, and put up for sale their housing back in Ukraine, which can also have a strong impact on the market.
Now Ukrainians have the opportunity to invest only in foreign shares, not in the domestic, and only those who have money in foreign accounts. The fact is that because of the war, the National Bank has limited the possibilities for capital withdrawal from Ukraine, so the option with Western shares can be considered if you have money abroad.
But even with the availability of such funds outside Ukraine, you need to be careful. Now the behavior of Western markets is more frightening to investors. All leading indexes, except the commodity and health industries (healthcare), have suffered significant losses, and, according to most experts, are still far from growth. Thus, the index of leading NASDAQ technology shares lost more than 20% since the beginning of the year. The Western world may be on the verge of a recession.
We cannot know the future behaviour of the market – it may grow or fall. However, when there is a recession, stocks usually fall. Therefore, in our opinion, this is not the most optimal entry point.
Investments in cryptocurrency have been questionable before, and now the onset of tighter monetary policy has led to a record collapse in the value of cryptocurrencies. The value of money in the world is rising, and the demand for risky investments is falling. It is impossible to foresee how prices will continue to change.
Gold can be a shield for savings, but only some Ukrainian banks offer “gold” deposits. The price of gold can fall or rise, that is, it is impossible to predict, and it is very difficult for ordinary people to understand this investment instrument.
Among them – antiques, art objects or even collectible alcohol. At the same time, such investments require some knowledge and effort with regard to the correct evaluation of objects. In addition, acquired luxury objects need to be properly and reliably maintained, which is quite difficult to do under the constant threat of rocket attacks.
Our advice is to invest in your own business. Of course, business risks have not been eliminated, but such investments can give the greatest returns. According to experts, for small manufacturers, especially food manufacturers, it is now much easier to get on the shelves of stores, and even large supermarket chains. And given the credit programs offered by the state, starting your business will require less money.